Workshops Central to WG II AR5 Development Cycle

1-3 NOVEMBER 2010 — Berlin, Germany

During the development phase, the IPCC Expert Meeting Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies (Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, 19-21 September, 2007) called for the organization of a meeting of the integrated assessment and impacts and adaptation communities to develop a joint strategy for storyline development. The need for such a expert meeting was reiterated by the Task Group established by the IPCC during its 30th session in Antalya, Turkey (21-23 April, 2009) to facilitate the catalytic role of the IPCC.

The RCPs and associated climate model simulations are envisioned to be complemented by a "library of socioeconomic scenarios and storylines" to inform impacts and adaptation analyses and IAM emission trajectories in ways that are mutually consistent. While each RCP was generated by an IAM driven by a set of assumptions about future socioeconomic development, technology, and policy, many other alternative sets of assumptions could result in similar concentration/radiative forcing pathways. This flexibility is an intentional and innovative feature of the RCP process. However, the assumptions chosen can significantly affect the outcomes of impacts and adaptation projections and analyses. Consistent scenario definitions of baseline and mitigation scenarios are critical to ensure comparability across studies that will be assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). An IPCC expert meeting involving the relevant communities engaged with the scenario development will address these issues.

IPCC Working Group III information on the workshop:
http://www.ipcc-wg3.de/meetings/expert-meetings-and-workshops/WoSES

17-19 JANUARY 2011 — Okinawa, JAPAN

The oceans currently absorb about one-third of fossil fuel CO2 emitted to the atmosphere and have, as a consequence, been increasing in acidity. Ocean acidification is now recognized as a critical component of global change, potentially responsible for a wide range of impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent consequences on livelihoods and food security. Further, one important aspect is that more CO2 mitigation may be required to achieve particular stabilization targets, because acidification limits the ability of the oceans to continue to absorb CO2. Previous IPCC assessment reports considered biogeochemical and temperature effects of anthropogenic carbon on the oceans, but the direct impacts of ocean acidification, its combined effects with ocean warming on marine ecosystems and productivity, and potential feedbacks to the climate system have not been fully assessed.

Since the publication of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), ocean acidification research, especially experimental studies of the impact of increased concentrations of seawater CO2 on marine biology in different regions, and modeling studies of future ocean environments, has been advancing rapidly. Given this progress and increasing interest from stakeholders in understanding the implications of ocean acidification, an IPCC Expert Meeting will discuss the rapidly advancing scientific findings on ocean acidification and its impacts since the publication of IPCC AR4, and to provide scientific information as input to Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).